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Betting Heavy Favorits

An acquaintance of mine made a huge bet on the Czech Republic to beat San Marino recently at a decimal odds of 1.02 (50/1 on or -5000).
A first observation is that such a bet can never have an expected value of more than +2 % and that is the case if there is a zero [...]

The Guru’s weekend card:

 
2009-08-22 Birmingham 2,30
2009-08-22 Sunderland 2,10
2009-08-22 West Ham 3,33
2009-08-22 Crystal Palace 3,10
2009-08-22 Queens Park Rangers 2,25
2009-08-22 Reading 2,45
2009-08-22 Bologna 3,50
2009-08-22 Celtics 1,19
2009-08-23 Inter 1,20
2009-08-23 Juventus 1,30
2009-08-23 Werder Bremen 1,44
2009-08-23 Twente 1,21

Midweek Soccer

 
Plymouth 3,00/+200
Hull 3,95/+295
0.5units each

Superettan

SuperEttan(SWE):
Sirius 4.55/+355 (0.5u)
Norrköping 2.00/+100 (1u)

The Championship for the weekend

The Championship, August 15
Blackpool – Cardiff 2,80/+180
Nottingham – West Brom 3,00/+200

Guru Super Chalks

Super Chalks:
Portugal 1,11/-947
France 1,05/-2083
Brazil 1,16/-548
Germany 1,10/-1000

The Guru’s EPL Power Ratings 2009/10

Power Ratings — EPL 2009/10
Chelsea +8
Manchester Utd +7
Liverpool +6
Arsenal +5
Manchester City +4
Tottenham +3
Everton +2
Aston Villa +1
West Ham +0
Portsmouth +0
Fulham -1
Sunderland -1
Blackburn -2
Bolton -2
Wigan -3
Stoke -3
Wolverhampton -3
Birmingham -4
Hull -4
Burnley -5
 
Saturday August 15
Everton 3,15/+215
Blackburn 3,59/+259
Portsmouth 2,37/+137
Wolverhampt  2,63/+163
Sunday August 16
Tottenham  3,35/+235

Soccer Chalk Eater

The Big Teams in the European Leagues have been doing great in the last seasons. The Guru will try some chalks:
Ajax – RKC 1.16, 1u
Chelsea – Hull 1.20, 0.50u
Manchester Utd – Birmingham 1.23, 1u
Inter – Bari 1.20, 0.50u
Juventus – Chievo 1.30, 1u
Barcelona – Sporting Gijon 1.16, 0.50u
plus the parlay Chelsea x Inter x Barcelona, 0.50u
I [...]

The Championship

Two of the favourites to win the Championship face each other on Saturday. I like West Brom to win (+130) and I also like Leicester (+125).
 
note: both bets are threeway bets (i.e draw loses)

Power Ratings

 
Power ratings — The Championship 2009/10
West Brom +4
Middlesborough +4
Newcastle +3
Ipswich +3
Sheff Utd +3
Reading +2
QPR +2
Nottm Forest +1
Cardiff +1
Leicester +1
Preston +0
Derby +0
Bristol C +0
Swansea -1
C Palace -1
Sheff Wed -1
Peterborough -2
Coventry -2
Watford -2
Doncaster -3
Plymouth -3
Blackpool -3
Scounthorpe -4
Barnsley -4