Farbror the Guru

Week 1 has been a UNDER fest for the last three seasons:

O/U: 32-64-0 (-3.8) avg total: 40.9
452 NY Giants  -3.5 1.95  U 40.5 1.90
454 BAL Ravens  +0.0 1.90  U 39.0 1.90  
456 MIA Dolphins  +3.0 2.00  U 36.0 1.90   
458 NE Patriots  -16.5 1.90  U 46.0 1.90 
460 PIT Steelers  -6.5 1.90  U 43.5 1.90  
462 TEN Titans  +3.0 1.83  U 37.0 1.90 
464 ATL Falcons  +3.0 1.86  U 41.0 1.90   
466 BUF Bills  +1.0 1.90  U 39.5 1.90   
468 NO Saints  -3.5 1.90  U 42.5 1.90  
470 PHL Eagles  -7.0 1.86  U 44.0 1.90  
472 CLE Browns  +4.0 1.90  U 48.5 1.90  
474 SD Chargers  -9.5 1.90  U 42.5 1.90  
476 SF 49ers  +3.0 1.83  U 41.5 1.90 
478 IND Colts  -9.0 1.90  U 44.0 1.90 
480 GB Packers  -3.0 2.00  U 38.5 1.90  
482 OAK Raiders  +3.0 1.90  U 41.5 1.90 

120 two-teamers @ micro unit

1 Baylor  +12.0  @ 1.90 
2 Stanford  +3.0  @ 1.90
3 Middle Tennessee St.  +6.5  @ 1.90
4 Army  +7.0  @ 1.90
5 UAB  +13.5  @ 1.90
6 New Mexico  +6.5  @ 1.86
7 Virginia  +19.5  @ 1.90

1.  Dela in lagen i fyra styrkeklasser:

A: Super Bowl Team
D: Slagpåsar (<7 segrar, typ)
B: “Dom Bättre av resten”
C: “Dom Sämre av resten”

2. Dela in lagen i tre defensivklasser:

I: 0-17 ppg
II: 18-21 ppg
III: 22+ ppg

3. Skatta linan med Tabell A (se nedan)

4. Gör en utförligare analys av matcher där linan The Man erbjuder avviker från lina skattad mha Tabell A

5. Granska lag som får poäng och med minst en defensivklass bättre lite extra noga

Exempel: CIN(B/III) - CLE(C/II) -6 (enligt Tab. A) defensiv varning då CLE har bättre D

Tabell A
================
A-A -3
A-B -6
A-C -9
A-D -12
B-A PK
B-B -3
B-C -6
B-D -9
C-A +3
C-B PK
C-C -3
C-D -6
D-A +6
D-B +3
D-C PK
D-D -3
 
Defense:  ppg05
DEF I:
Chicago Bears    12.6
Indianapolis Colts   15.4
Pittsburgh Steelers  16.1
Denver Broncos    16.1 
Carolina Panthers    16.2
Jacksonville Jaguars    16.8
Seattle Seahawks    16.9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers    17.1

DEF II:
Washington Redskins    18.3
Baltimore Ravens   18.7
Cleveland Browns    18.8
Dallas Cowboys    19.3
San Diego Chargers    19.5
New York Giants    19.6
Miami Dolphins    19.8
Kansas City Chiefs    20.3
New England Patriots    21.1
Atlanta Falcons    21.3
Minnesota Vikings    21.5 
Green Bay Packers    21.5

DEF III:
Detroit Lions    21.6  
Cincinnati Bengals    21.9 
New York Jets    22.2  
Buffalo Bills    22.9  
Oakland Raiders    23.9 
Arizona Cardinals    24.2
Philadelphia Eagles    24.3
New Orleans Saints    24.9
Tennessee Titans    26.3
St. Louis Rams    26.8
San Francisco 49ers    26.8
Houston Texans    26.9 

EZpower:

A:
Indianapolis Colts  
Seattle Seahawks  
New England Patriots  
Pittsburgh Steelers   
Carolina Panthers  
Denver Broncos   

B:
Dallas Cowboys   
Kansas City Chiefs  
Jacksonville Jaguars  
Chicago Bears   
Miami Dolphins   
San Diego Chargers  
Washington Redskins   
Cincinnati Bengals  
Philadelphia Eagles  
New York Giants  

C:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers  
Atlanta Falcons  
Arizona Cardinals  
Minnesota Vikings  
Baltimore Ravens   
St. Louis Rams        
New Orleans Saints  
Detroit Lions   
Cleveland Browns  
Buffalo Bills   

D:
Green Bay Packers  
Oakland Raiders  
New York Jets   
Houston Texas   
Tennessee Titans      
San Francisco 49ers    

Week 2 ‘06:
MIA - BUF B-C -6
MIN - CAR C-A +3
CIN - CLE B-C -6 def. varning!
CHI - DET B-C -6
IND - HOU A-D -12
GB  - NO  D-C PK def. varning!
PHI - NYG B-B -3 def. varning!
BAL - OAK C-D -6
ATL - TB  C-C -3 def. varning!
SEA - ARI A-C -9
SF  - STL D-C PK
DEN - KAN A-B -6
NYJ - NE  D-A +6
SD  - TEN B-D -9
DAL - WAS B-B -3
JAX - PIT B-A PK

1 Hammarby    @ 3.00 
2 Helsingborg    @ 2.00
3 Häcken    @ 2.35

three two-team parlays, “smallish bet size”

DALLAS COWBOYS
  2007 S/U 13-4; ATS 9-8; O/U 10-7
 2007 SPREAD FACT: STARTED THE SEASON 9-4 ATS; FINISHED SEASON 0-5 ATS.
 2007 SPREAD FACT: 2-5 ATS WHEN FAVORITE OF 10 OR MORE POINTS
  2007 TOTAL FACT: 4-1 OVER WITH TOTALS 48 AND HIGHER
  OFFENSIVE ANALYSIS:
 QB Tony Romo enters his second season as the starting quarterback for the Cowboys. They lost their last four games of the season ATS (including playoffs). The Dallas offense scored 6, 20, 6 and 17 points in these four games. Defensive coordinators around the NFL have figured out how to stop QB Romo and the Cowboys. With enough film, they will find the weaknesses and plan schemes around them. Dallas will use RB Marion Barber, not a guy to break loose for 80-yard sprints but will consistently give you 4-5 yards per carry. 1^st round pick Felix Jones will be added as a 3^rd-down back. Offensive Coordinator Jason Garrett has proved he is one of the best in the league and should continue to find holes in opponents’ defense.
   DEFENSIVE ANALYSIS:
 The Cowboys front seven are good versus the run. Opposing offenses can’t push them around. But the front seven seem to wear down by the 4^th quarter. Cowboys add LB Zack Thomas from Miami. The DB’s can and often are beaten by the pass. Teams will continue to exploit Roy Williams. If the league reinstates Adam “Pacman” Jones he will upgrade the Dallas pass defense tremendously.
 TEAM ANAYLSIS:
Expect the Cowboys to be overrated by the media and the general public (squares) to start the season. They have talent but too many of their key players are selfish, concentrating too much on their own stats and not on winning the game. Head Coach Wade Phillips has little real authority. Jerry Jones will always get involved and turn the team atmosphere into a circus.
 
   KEY PLAYERS ADDED:
    Adam (Pacman) Jones-C (Tennessee)
Zach Thomas-LB (Miami)
  KEY PLAYERS LOST:
 Akin Ayodele-LB (Miami)
Keith Davis-S (Miami)
Anthony Fasano-TE (Miami)
Julius Jones-RB (Seattle)
Nate Jones-CB (Miami)